It’s unbelievable how many high conviction bitcoiners, who believe bitcoin will appreciate at 20%, 30% or even 50% CAGR, when they talk about safety withdrawal rate for retirement with bitcoin, they adhere to the traditional 4%. 😂
4% is the rule for 60/40 portfolios expected to have ~7% CAGR. If you have conviction on a 20% CAGR, withdrawing 15% should be totally possible. The only problem is the sequence-of-returns risk, that with bitcoin volatility is high. But it is solved not selling in the bear market, just that.
You can have a bucket of cash that covers 3 years of retirement allowance, and withdraw from here in bear markets, this way, you can wait for a bear marker to recover in up to 3 years. In the bull market, you sell for you allowance and refill the bucket. With this strategy you should be able to withdraw a percentage close to the CAGR and conserve the principal. Another option is to borrow against your bitcoin so you don’t have to sell.
submitted by /u/Ok-Yak-1495
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