Waiting a few years to start spending your BTC looks like a free win in my simulator. Here’s why that’s misleading.

I built a free Bitcoin retirement simulator and tried something simple: same 2 BTC, same $3,000 a month, and the only thing I changed was when the spending starts.

• Start now: the stack lasts until about 2036
• Start in 2030: it lasts until about 2050

Waiting looks like a free win. But the model assumes the price keeps rising over the long run, so waiting just means selling at higher prices.

Then I made the price fall 70% right after the 2030 start. Same coins, same spending, and it runs out in 2037 instead of 2050.

Thirteen years of difference, just from timing.

Do you build a crash into your own plan, or just a smooth line?

It’s a model, not a forecast. The simulator is free with no signup if you want to try your own numbers: https://bitcoinlifespan.com/