Key Takeaways
- Bernstein’s base case scenario projects Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by 2029
- In an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could climb to $500,000 by 2029 and touch $1 million by 2033
- Growing sovereign debt levels and currency devaluation concerns underpin the bullish forecast
- The firm reduced its Strategy stock price target to $350 from $450 due to share dilution
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF and gold ETFs have surged back into the top 10 most-traded ETF list
In a recent client note, Bernstein analysts under the leadership of Gautam Chhugani outlined an ambitious price trajectory for Bitcoin, predicting the digital asset will touch $125,000 by the close of 2026. Their analysis suggests further appreciation to a fresh record of $150,000 by the middle of 2027.
Bernstein Sees Bitcoin at $150K by Mid-2027, Cuts Strategy Price Target to $350
Bernstein analysts expect Bitcoin to reach roughly $125k by the end of 2026, a new high of $150k by mid-2027 and a cycle peak of around $300k in 2029 under their base case.
If currency debasement… pic.twitter.com/9kyPs8rpQP
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 26, 2026
According to the firm’s central projection, Bitcoin’s cycle top could land near $300,000 in 2029. Looking further ahead, Bernstein anticipates the cryptocurrency reaching the $1 million milestone by 2033’s conclusion.
The analytical framework employed by Bernstein assesses Bitcoin’s value relative to its marginal production costs. The research team maintains that the digital currency continues to track its characteristic four-year market cycle.
Central to their thesis is the conclusion of four decades of decreasing interest rates. With U.S. government debt surpassing $40 trillion, Bernstein expects authorities will opt for monetary devaluation rather than implementing strict fiscal discipline.
This macroeconomic transition, the analysts contend, enhances appetite for finite assets such as Bitcoin. Data shows approximately 59% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has remained dormant over the trailing twelve months.
Following a roughly 50% drawdown from its October 2025 high, Bitcoin has rebounded 28% in the last ten days. Bernstein attributes the relatively contained decline to participation from spot ETFs and corporate treasury accumulation compared to earlier market cycles.
Aggressive Adoption Scenario and ETF Trends
Should institutional capital flow into Bitcoin at an accelerated pace, Bernstein envisions an expedited timeline. This bull case projects Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by mid-2027 with a potential peak of $500,000 in 2029.
Bloomberg’s Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas observed that “the debasement trade is starting to replace AI mania.” Both BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF and the SPDR gold ETF have reclaimed positions among the top 10 most-actively-traded ETFs, displacing several semiconductor-focused funds.
Additionally, BlackRock has processed $5 billion in tax-advantaged Bitcoin-to-ETF conversions, indicating substantial holders are transferring their Bitcoin positions into the ETF structure.
Strategy Stock Target Adjustment
While preserving its Outperform stance on Strategy, Bernstein adjusted its price objective downward from $450 to $350. The revision reflects the firm’s refreshed Bitcoin cycle analysis and increased equity dilution velocity.
Strategy’s current Bitcoin holdings stand at 840,447 coins, representing approximately 4% of the total circulating supply. According to Bernstein’s calculations, the company maintains roughly 3.9 years of cash reserves to meet interest payments and preferred dividend commitments.
Despite the reduction, the new $350 target implies a 176% appreciation potential from Strategy’s latest closing price of $126.83. Bernstein noted that if Strategy’s preferred shares recover toward the $100 level, it could trigger additional Bitcoin acquisitions.
Strategy’s shares declined over 2% during premarket trading. Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures open interest contracted 2.7% to $54.80 billion over the past 24 hours, reflecting a cautious stance in derivatives markets.
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