Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs reduced Tesla’s third-quarter delivery projection to 435,000 units from a prior estimate of 490,000, pointing to softening demand across major markets including China, the United States, and Europe.
- The new Q3 projection falls short of the Wall Street consensus forecast of 456,000 vehicle deliveries.
- Tesla shares are currently priced at $356.58, reflecting a 20% decline year-to-date, with the company maintaining a market capitalization of $1.41 trillion.
- Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja divested 2,606 shares on September 8 at $360.13 per share, representing a 9.12% decrease in his holdings.
- Wall Street analysts maintain a “Hold” rating on Tesla with an average price target of $414.68.
Tesla (TSLA) confronts renewed challenges following Goldman Sachs’ decision to lower its third-quarter delivery expectations, compounding what has already been a turbulent year for the electric vehicle pioneer.
Mark Delaney, an analyst at Goldman, reduced his third-quarter delivery projection to 435,000 units, down from the previous 490,000 estimate. He maintained a Neutral stance with a $360 price target. Shares currently change hands at $356.58.
This updated forecast trails the Street consensus of 456,000 deliveries compiled by Visible Alpha. Additionally, fifteen analysts have adjusted their earnings projections downward for the forthcoming reporting period.
Goldman attributed the reduction to softer monthly and weekly sales figures emerging from China, the United States, and Europe. However, markets receiving exports from China—including Southeast Asia, South America, and Australia—demonstrate more resilience and may partially counterbalance the weakness in primary markets.
Goldman simultaneously lowered its fourth-quarter outlook to 475,000 deliveries from 515,000. This projection remains above the consensus figure of 462,000.
Tesla shares have declined 20% since the beginning of the year. Throughout the past twelve months, the stock recorded a low of $297.38 and peaked at $498.83.
Executive Stock Transaction
Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja disposed of 2,606 shares on September 8 at an average transaction price of $360.13, generating proceeds of $938,498. The divestiture was associated with tax liabilities stemming from vesting equity compensation. His remaining position stands at 25,972 shares.
Institutional stakeholders control 66.2% of Tesla’s outstanding shares. Waverly Advisors reduced its Tesla holdings by 12.1% during the second quarter, liquidating 7,973 shares while maintaining 58,174 shares valued at approximately $24.5 million.
Conversely, Nykredit A/S established a fresh position valued at roughly $262 million, while Range Advisory expanded its stake by 91.9%.
Recent Financial Performance and Divergent Analyst Perspectives
Tesla’s latest quarterly financial results revealed revenue of $28.24 billion, representing a 25.5% year-over-year increase and surpassing the $26.42 billion estimate. However, adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 significantly undershot the $0.50 consensus expectation.
Analyst opinions remain divided. Stifel maintains a Buy recommendation with a $491 price objective. Evercore elevated Tesla to Outperform status in June. Wells Fargo adopts a more conservative stance, retaining an Underweight rating with a $130 target. GLJ Research carries a Sell rating.
The aggregate consensus remains at Hold, comprising 22 Buy ratings, 18 Hold ratings, and five Sell ratings. The mean price target stands at $414.68.
On regulatory matters, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is examining whether Tesla appropriately self-certified its steering-wheel-free Cybercab. The agency has requested a response by September 30.
Goldman continues to identify potential catalysts for fourth-quarter demand, including the Model Y Long Range production increase in the United States and Europe, along with Full Self-Driving technology advancements. Analysts project Tesla will deliver $0.88 earnings per share for the complete fiscal year.
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