Bitcoin’s last 90 days have a 97.1 correlation with a stretch ending in February 2023

Bitcoin’s latest 90 daily observations have a 97.1 correlation with the period ending February 23, 2023.

What caught my attention wasn’t just the score. Both paths spent weeks moving mostly sideways, broke sharply higher around a similar point, and then consolidated near the endpoint.

The historical window ran from November 26, 2022 through February 23, 2023, beginning shortly after FTX’s collapse and unfolding during continued Federal Reserve tightening.

What happened after the historical match ended:

1M: +4.6%
3M: +23.1%
6M: +27.1%
Max drawdown: -17.6%

The comparison is based on the shape of the two normalized price paths, not on the surrounding market conditions. And those conditions are materially different today — the 2023 window predates U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETPs, among other changes in the regulatory and policy environment.

So I wouldn’t interpret the historical continuation as a prediction of what Bitcoin does next. I just thought the similarity between the two paths was unusually striking and worth sharing.

Historical outcome, not a forecast.